Skip to content

Tag Archives: deleverage

Euro crush

From the brilliant graphics team at the New York Times… ~~~ “Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany. Arrow widths are proportional to debt amounts.” ~~~ What is the solution? Haircuts… […]

Lehman 2.0

The global financial system is a tight web of connections. While the US Congress debates financial reform the Euro system is being shaken down by its weakest member Greece… In the financial crisis of 2007-2009 everyone was taken by surprise by “mortgage repayment” default risk… The assumption had always been that RMBS were sufficiently varied by […]

Is the next global crisis beginning?

It’s very helpful to see this chart. Data points like this show the extra risk that investors believe Greek debt represents. In September, 2008 when Lehman failed the global credit markets froze. Note how that impacted the the risk premium for Greek debt. FT Alphaville pointed to comments made by the Bank of France governor, […]

witness the Romans, who had a constant succession of triumphs while they managed their Government on a certain plan

“It is not chance that rules the world, witness the Romans, who had a constant succession of triumphs while they managed their Government on a certain plan, and an uninterrupted series of reverses when it was conducted on another. There are general causes, either moral or physical, at work in every monarchy, exalting, maintaining or overcoming […]

The Euro “big boy” view of the Obama plan

From Bloomberg… “Florian Esterer, a fund manager at Swisscanto Asset Management, and Dirk Becker, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, talk about President Barack Obama’s plan to curb U.S. banks. They also speak with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat about today’s meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in London. ” Here is the press release from […]

We’ve stuffed all the problems in the closet…

An unknown Wall Streeter says that Treasury Secretary Geithner and the Obama economic team are the Emperor with no clothes…  if this guy is saying it… everyone is saying it… From Bloomberg… Doug Dachille, chief executive officer of First Principles Capital Management LLC, talks with  Pimm Fox about the U.S. government’s decision to provide additional aid to GMAC […]

Household leverage and thin ice

I’m attending a conference at the IMF on “Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Adjustment” First panel: Panel Chair: Jonathan D. Ostry (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF) First paper: Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009 Atif Mian (University of Chicago and NBER) and Amir Sufi (University of Chicago and NBER) Discussant: Kevin Lansing (Federal Reserve […]

TBTF and stress test vignettes

  Mariner Kemper of UMB Financial, a regional bank, discusses “too big to fail” … he says “it’s not the size of the banks it’s their complexity…”  and  “if banks are too big to fail they shouldn’t exist at all”…  (Bloomberg… running time = 4 minutes) Mr. Kemper epitomizes the type of bankers that we need […]

Le le le leverage

Analysis and discussion with Brad Hintz ,Analyst of Sanford C Bernstein talking about financials. He talks about leverage levels at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley running around 13 times versus the 30-40 times levered pre commercial bank mutation…. Mr. Hintz previously served as the CFO of Lehman Brothers so I’m always very interested in his […]

Financial system stress…

EconomicPicData has a nice chart this morning on credit default swaps for financial firms… See especially General Electric but all these firms have spreads that are signalling increased risk in owning their debt … instability is roaring back to these undercapitalized, overleveraged firms … Now lets cross reference this to membership on the Board of […]