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3 Comments

  1. cate wrote:

    As The Street notes, France and Germany are also greatly exposed to Portugal and Spain:
    France’s banking sector has the second-largest exposure to Portugal and Spain debt loads, after Germany, according to the BIS.

    European banks have more at-risk assets in Portugal and Spain than in Greece. European lenders are holding Portugal debt issues of $240.5 billion — including $47.4 billion by German banks and $44.9 billion by French firms, according to BIS figures from the end of 2009 quoted in a Bloomberg report.

    And as Tyler Durden points out, France Germany and the UK are getting hit with wider credit default swap spreads:

    With a stunning $630 million, $558 million and $370 million in net notional derisking, France, UK and Germany are the top three most active recipients in negative bets in the prior week, not just in sovereigns but in all names…

    Zero Hedge’s outside bet to be the first core country to blow up, thanks to its massive PIIGS exposure, France, finally made the top spot in net derisking, with $629 million in net notional, or 189 contracts. The smart money is now massively betting that Europe’s core is done for; as the PIIGS have demonstrated, the blow out in spreads for the core trifecta can not be far behind.

    Given that central bankers have – for several years – focused on credit default swaps as the most important economic indicator (see this and this), widening spreads are a bad sign, indeed.

    http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/05/are-france-and-germany-in-trouble.html

    Thursday, May 6, 2010 at 5:03 am | Permalink
  2. cate wrote:

    Hugh Hendry: The Greek “Bailout” Is Really A Bailout Of French Banks

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hugh-hendry-greek-bailout-really-bailout-french-banks

    Thursday, May 6, 2010 at 5:06 am | Permalink
  3. cate wrote:

    Presenting Total Bank Assets As A Percentage Of Host Countries’ GDP

    With the threat of sovereign default and contagion now pervasive within the Eurozone periphery, it is relevant to quantify the relative exposure of various banking centers’ assets as a percentage of host countries’ total GDP. The reason for this is that in Europe for many countries a sovereign default would not have as great an impact, as a risk-flaring contagion impacting these countries’ primary financial entities, whose assets account in some cases for multiples of host GDP. For example in Switzerland, the assets of the top two banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, alone account for nearly 600% of the country’s GDP. And while Switzerland is relatively isolated from the budget and deficit crises in the PIIGS and STUPIDs, other countries such as Italy, Belgium and ultimately France, Germany and the UK, are much more exposed.

    Belgium – Dexia: 180%of GDP
    France – BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, SocGen: 237% of GDP
    Germany – Deutsche Bank: 84%
    Italy – Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo: 101%
    Netherlands – Fortis: 155%
    Spain – Banco Santander: 92%
    UK – RBS, Barclays, HSBC: 337%
    Compare that to the top 5 banks in the US (a list which excludes hedge funds such as Goldman Sachs).

    US – JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Fannie: just 56% of GDP.
    The question which pundits should be focusing on is once the Greek crisis flares up and takes down several peripheral non-hosted banks, just what the interplay of a “falling domino” scenario will be not only on neighboring European countries, but also on the holdings of their domestic banks. Because it is inevitable that the same kind of bank run witness in Greece, will become a pervasive phenomenon and impact Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc, which would be the precursor to a global bank run.

    The chart below demonstrates graphically the ratio between a given bank’s asset and the GDP of its host country. Unfortunately for Europe, there is a dramatic concentration of bank assets precisely in some of the most precarious regions. Which is why Germany may have kicked the can down the road for at least a month, but the issue will come back with a vengeance for the simple reason we have noted from the start of this crisis: only Bernanke has a money printer. Everyone else actually has to produce “stuff”, sell it and collect taxes if they want to fill catastrophic budget deficits. And the latter, as we have seen, is something the developed world has been horrible at doing over the past decade, courtesy of the Goldman-facilitated innovation explosion.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-total-bank-assets-percentage-host-countries-gdp

    Thursday, May 6, 2010 at 5:30 am | Permalink

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